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Figures don't lie, but they are open to interpretation

UNION-TRIBUNE STAFF WRITER

April 22, 2007
In 1998, authors Don Yaeger and Jeff Benedict documented crime among NFL players in their book “Pros and Cons.”

The book used public records and statistical analyses to determine that 21 percent of NFL players then had criminal records – a finding the NFL criticized on several grounds. The NFL said the study unfairly included criminal incidents in college and that their rate of arrests is no different than, say, a group of plumbers.

It all depends on the model of comparison:

According to the Union-Tribune's list of 308 arrests and citations since 2000, the NFL's arrest rate is about 43 per year, or one per 45 players. That's out of about 1,950 players per year including practice squads and does not include college charges.

For the general population, the arrest rate is twice as frequent – about one per 21 people, according to the FBI. The FBI's rate, like this NFL rate, does not count the number of individual people arrested, just incidents. The FBI rate also counts an arrest as “each separate instance in which a person is arrested, cited, or summoned for an offense.”

For drunken-driving arrests, the NFL's rate is about one per 144 players, according to the list. That's better than the overall general population's DUI arrest rate of one per 135 people, according to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. Compared to all men under 30, the NFL compares even better. The NHTSA didn't have an exact rate but said the DUI rate for men under 30 was roughly double the general population's.

Statistically, analysts say the fairest measure of comparison is to contrast the numbers with the right peer group.

For NFL players, “their peers are people with high-wage opportunity and have some college eduction,” Yaeger said. “Why compare an NFL player who has the ability to earn $2.8 million next year with a crack dealer in Washington, D.C.? You compare them to people who earn a good living and put that at risk (with crime), and their arrest rate is outrageous.”

Arrest rate statistics by wage and level of education were not available because it is not typically recorded when arrests are made.


 Brent Schrotenboer: (619) 293-1368; brent.schrotenboer@uniontrib.com


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